Demographics

Population Projections

The Office of the State Demographer for State of Texas, Texas State Data Center Texas A&M University System, distributes the most widely used population projections for Texas. This current series is the result of revised population data from the 2000 census. Each projection series includes three scenarios resulting in three alternative sets of population values for the State and each county are presented in these projections. These scenarios assume the same set of mortality and fertility assumptions in each scenario but differ in their assumptions relative to net migration. The net migration assumptions made for three scenarios are derived from 1990-2000 patterns which have been altered relative to expected future population trends. This is done by systematically and uniformly altering the adjusted 1990-2000 net migration rates by age, sex and race/ethnicity. The scenarios so produced are referred to as the zero migration (0.0) scenario, the one-half 1990-2000 (0.5) scenario, and the 1990-2000 (1.0) scenario.

The recommended scenario for most county based projection reporting used is believed to be the 0.5 scenario as most appropriate scenario for most counties in Texas. This scenario has been prepared as an approximate average of the zero (0.0) and 1990-2000 (1.0) scenarios. It assumes rates of net migration one-half of those of the 1990s. The reason for including this scenario is that many counties in the State are unlikely to continue to experience the overall levels of relatively extensive growth of the 1990s. A scenario which projects rates of population growth that are approximately an average of the zero and the 1990-2000 scenarios is one that suggests slower but steadier growth than occurred during 1990-2000. (For a more detailed discussion see http://txsdc.tamu.edu/tpepp/2001_txpopprj_method.php).

Using this projection scenario, the following table represents population projections for Howard County:
Population Projections and Percent Change Since 2000†

Year	Total	Pct Chg	Anglo	Pct Chg	Black	Pct Chg	Hispanic	Pct Chg	Other	Pct Chg
2000	33,627	---	19,327	---	1,357	---	12,597	---	346	---
2005	34,032	1.2	18,780	-2.8	1,447	6.6	13,444	6.7	361	4.3
2010	34,531	2.7	18,280	-5.4	1,543	13.7	14,336	13.8	372	7.5
2015	34,930	3.9	17,757	-8.1	1,614	18.9	15,178	20.5	381	10.1
2020	35,115	4.4	17,165	-11.2	1,636	20.6	15,926	26.4	388	12.1
2025	35,095	4.4	16,494	-14.7	1,627	19.9	16,582	31.6	392	13.3
2030	34,858	3.7	15,765	-18.4	1,588	17.0	17,110	35.8	395	14.2
2035	34,434	2.4	15,015	-22.3	1,528	12.6	17,502	38.9	389	12.4
2040	33,816	0.6	14,263	-26.2	1,446	6.6	17,728	40.7	379	9.5

†Anglo, Black,and Other excludes Hispanic counts.

For comparison purposes, the Texas population projections, using the same scenario methodology, are as follows:
Population Projections and Percent Change Since 2000‡

Year	Total	Pct Chg	Anglo	Pct Chg	Black	Pct Chg	Hispanic	Pct Chg	Other	Pct Chg
2000	20,851,820	---	11,074,716	---	2,421,653	---	6,669,666	---	685,785	---
2005	22,489,182	7.9	11,309,563	2.1	2,579,878	6.5	7,784,678	16.7	815,063	18.9
2010	24,178,507	16.0	11,494,673	3.8	2,730,659	12.8	8,999,827	34.9	953,348	39.0
2015	25,936,845	24.4	11,641,040	5.1	2,874,838	18.7	10,320,923	54.7	1,100,044	60.4
2020	27,738,378	33.0	11,735,043	6.0	3,004,173	24.1	11,742,820	76.1	1,256,342	83.2
2025	29,565,131	41.8	11,759,735	6.2	3,110,933	28.5	13,271,907	99.0	1,422,556	107.4
2030	31,389,565	50.5	11,701,065	5.7	3,191,230	31.8	14,900,692	123.4	1,596,578	132.8
2035	33,204,545	59.2	11,569,104	4.5	3,247,501	34.1	16,612,551	149.1	1,775,389	158.9
2040	35,012,330	67.9	11,382,992	2.8	3,283,413	35.6	18,391,333	175.7	1,954,592	185.0

‡Anglo, Black,and Other excludes Hispanic counts.